Every pick published before first pitch. Every result graded by machine, at the published price.
How a pick gets made — the model, traced on two real picks →
Prop picks ranked by calibrated EV (cEV), plus the top full-game moneyline play (*game plays are ranked by raw EV; calibration pending). Times CT. The full model run also surfaced 7 more game plays today in lanes the ledger doesn't yet vouch for — not shown here, but graded in the open ledger like everything else. conf = the batting order this pick depends on is posted. proj = still projected; the pick may move when lineups post.
| Bet | Who | First pitch | Lineup | Bet to | cEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop picks pending — props are pulled once lineups start confirming. Check back closer to first pitch. | |||||
| FG ML TOR | TOR@CLE · full game | 5:40p | proj | +121 | +15%* |
One tag per published pick, in the order we ranked it — props and game plays alike. 11–7, +3.6u at published prices.
Every pick from the last card, with results and prices →
Every published pick since 2026-07-21. Market = the no-vig price; what pure luck would hit.
| Lane | W–L | Win | Market | Edge | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB Over 0.5 — hitter records a base | 339–244 | 58.1% | 52.9% | +5.2pp | +73.0u |
| Strikeout Unders — starter stays under the K line | 208–181 | 53.5% | 50.3% | +3.2pp | +0.5u |
| All model props — every green candidate the model graded | 1186–1069 | 52.6% | 49.8% | +2.8pp | +42.0u |
| Moneylines (FG) — game plays — shown win or lose | 89–74 | 54.6% | 53.6% | +1.0pp | -3.3u |