Full Count Model

Every pick published before first pitch. Every result graded by machine, at the published price.

How a pick gets made — the model, traced on two real picks →

Today's card — Tuesday, September 1

Prop picks ranked by calibrated EV (cEV), plus the top full-game moneyline play (*game plays are ranked by raw EV; calibration pending). Times CT. The full model run also surfaced 7 more game plays today in lanes the ledger doesn't yet vouch for — not shown here, but graded in the open ledger like everything else. conf = the batting order this pick depends on is posted. proj = still projected; the pick may move when lineups post.

BetWhoFirst pitchLineupBet tocEV
Prop picks pending — props are pulled once lineups start confirming. Check back closer to first pitch.
FG ML TORTOR@CLE · full game5:40pproj+121+15%*

Last 3 cards, settled

One tag per published pick, in the order we ranked it — props and game plays alike. 11–7, +3.6u at published prices.

PropsMoneyline
Mon 8/31WWLLLSD ✓3–3-0.5u
Sun 8/30WWWWLCWS ✗4–2+2.4u
Sat 8/29LWWLWPIT ✓4–2+1.7u

Every pick from the last card, with results and prices →

The record

Every published pick since 2026-07-21. Market = the no-vig price; what pure luck would hit.

LaneW–LWinMarketEdgeUnits
TB Over 0.5 — hitter records a base339–24458.1%52.9%+5.2pp+73.0u
Strikeout Unders — starter stays under the K line208–18153.5%50.3%+3.2pp+0.5u
All model props — every green candidate the model graded1186–106952.6%49.8%+2.8pp+42.0u
Moneylines (FG) — game plays — shown win or lose89–7454.6%53.6%+1.0pp-3.3u